新国学网:西方艺术经纪人Thomas_Stauffer：我们知道这是世界末日，但“_-在线-艺术展-拍卖行

作者：ThomasStauffer,瑞士GerberStaufferFineArts合伙人

作者：Thomas Stauffer, 瑞士Gerber Stauffer Fine Arts合伙人, 苏黎世

（图片提供：Thomas Stauffer）

“It’s the End of the World as We Know It”（正如我们所知这是世界末日）

在“新冠”危机之后艺术世界将大不相同

这篇文章的标题源自美国摇滚乐队R.E.M1987年专辑中的一首歌。这首歌的全名是“正如我们所知这是世界末日（我感觉很好）”，我认为，鉴于我们正经历的前所未有的可怕处境，这句歌词相当贴切。但从长远来看，可能将解放了我们现在生活的时代。

经济学家一致认为，全球经济正处于衰退之中，这可能是西方有史以来在没有战争影响的情况下最严重的衰退。一些人甚至更进一步预测，我们将目睹自1930年代“大萧条”以来最严重的经济衰退。与“新冠病毒”大流行相比，1970年代的石油危机，9/11事件的惨痛经历和2008年雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）的倒闭，可能远不如我们今天所面临的如此戏剧性。除了有长时间等待经济逆转的痛苦，我们都发现自己身处一个有许多限制的新世界：社会距离，旅行限制，废弃的机场。其中许多国家的航空公司停飞或破产，不能再继续运行。在Covid-19之后，我们可能进入一个新的去全球化时期，对所有人而言都是未知的结果和影响。

隔离期间，Thomas Stauffer在一位藏家朋友的家里的私人聚会

（图片提供：Thomas Stauffer）​

“Covid-19”危机对艺术界有什么影响？

前景黯淡：据著名的艺术品经销商多米尼克·莱维（Dominique Lévy）称，画廊的艺术品销售额下降了90%。可能有些夸张，但这仍然是一个令人感叹的数字。上周，一位来自纽约的著名收藏家在电话中告诉我：“这将使许多画廊倒闭。”

由于全球流行的疫情，世界上大多数博物馆和美术馆都关闭了，何时再次开放还不确定。一些艺术现场和交流也可能因为经济原因完全消失。中小型画廊已经很难生存，许多画廊将永远关闭。所谓的“新兴或需求”艺术家的等待名单一夜之间消失了，突然间变成了有大量存货。

画廊经常有巨额的日常开支，其展览场地租金昂贵，工作人员的工资也不菲。如果人们看不到艺术品，买家不能来买东西，他们怎么付房租和员工的工资呢？我们现在听到的画廊交易价格大多在几千到十万美元之间。如今，即使是最大的画廊，超过20万美元的交易也被视为“可观的”交易。

毫无疑问，像高古轩（Gagosian），豪瑟沃斯（Hauser&Wirth），大卫卓纳（David Zwirner）这样的大型画廊以及非常成熟的“明星艺术家”当然会在这场大流行疫情中幸存下来。即使其中一些画廊已经因为艺术行业面临的现实困境而不得不解雇人员，但这些画廊有足够的财力来应对危机。超级画廊与其他中小型画廊的差距将会越来越大。对不太知名的画廊及艺术家来说，获得经济上可行的市场及职业将变得越来越难。

艺术行业将会面临多么可怕的损失？很大程度上取决于这场全球性的健康危机会持续多久。但那些最敏捷、最开放地面对变化的画廊、艺术家及全球艺术生态的参与者，将有生存下来的希望。创造力将成为决定性的生存特质，幸运的是，这正是我们所拥有的。

2019年，巴塞尔艺术展迈阿密海滩展会Thomas Erben艺廊展位现场，图片：巴塞尔艺术展

艺术博览会是怎样的情形呢？

目前全世界有300多个艺博会面临取消。TEFAF和Frieze都取消了原定5月份在纽约举办的艺术展，欧洲许多小型艺术展也面临同样的处境。艺博会之母：巴塞尔艺术展，将毫无疑问地会生存下去。其他的如TEFAF、Frieze（至少Frieze Master）当然也会继续下去。区域性定位良好的小型艺术博览会，如马德里Arco艺博会、上海西岸和Art021艺博会，可能也会从“Covid-19”的余波中走出来，甚至变得更好，因为收藏家可能不想冒着被困在一架飞机上几个小时的风险，跑去外面的艺博会买作品。

目前，世界正处于强制冬眠状态。大部分地区的艺术品市场计划于2020年9月恢复，目前在这个月的日历上满是双年展、拍卖会和艺术博览会。瑞士巴塞尔艺术展已从6月推迟到9月，也是原定于9月举办的众多艺术活动的一部分。然而，如果西方不能很快控制住疫情，所有这些活动都有可能永远取消，因此今年可能根本就没有艺术展、大型拍卖会或双年展。接下来的几周或几个月将决定之后的走向。

2019年纽约苏富比春拍现场（图片由蘇富比提供）

拍卖行将如何应对这场深刻的全球危机，以及危机过后他们的前景如何？

很可能它们会被目前的情形严重挫伤，但应该能够迅速恢复业务。它们的一些业务已经通过在线拍卖实现了数字化，这一转变现在将更加突出。但是，如果没有拍卖现场的参与者和营造的激动人心的气氛，拍卖行还能存在吗？很难想象在可预见的未来，收藏家们会愿意支付数百万美元的网上购买看不到真实面目的艺术品。

一个直接的反应是，拍卖行把重点放在了私人洽购的销售上。原定于5月在纽约举行的拍卖要么推迟到6月，要么完全取消。而那些原计划在拍卖会上出售的艺术品，现在往往被转到拍卖行的私洽部门。然而，私洽是一种缓慢的业务，这意味着拍卖行永远无法用这种方式来弥补其损失。对大多数拍卖行而言，短期和中期的销售策略是私人洽购和在线拍卖的结合。

以全新面貌登场的MoMA

未来，旅行限制或旅行焦虑可能很严重，我们无法轻松地去观看艺术展及我们所爱的艺术家作品，因此艺术展览将转向数字化或区域性活动。

我们将看到更多的虚拟博物馆和画廊展览。大多数画廊、艺术博览会和博物馆已经在争先恐后地开发在线展览平台。尤其是画廊，他们正在为收藏家的在线展厅投入巨资。收藏家们将在网上竞购他们想要的艺术品，并在Instagram上观看他们最喜欢的馆长和一位画廊老板的现场讨论。作为一名收藏家、艺术爱好者和博物馆爱好者，将在自己的智能手机上拥有袖珍格式的艺术世界。可以通过虚拟现实（VR）和增强现实（AR）的工具访问Moma纽约。这些在线展厅的努力还没有形成标准，但显然，这将改变我们在国际视觉文化和交流的新范式中体验艺术的方式。

即使上述对当前艺术界现状的描述可能相当严峻，但总体而言，我非常肯定，艺术品市场将从中走出来，甚至比以前更加强劲——以什么方式，我们不知道，但情况可能会大不相同。

病毒不会杀死我们对艺术和文化的好奇心。当我们回顾2008/09年雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）破产以及随后的全球金融危机时，艺术品市场迅速复苏，2011年，拍卖和私人拍卖的顶级艺术品价格再次飙升。

是的，世界正处于封锁之中，但从积极的一面看，我们可以腾出时间，被迫重新思考我们作为全球一部分的未来。现在是幻想的时候，不是绝望的时候。“新冠危机”将如何改变我们这个社会？这取决于我们是否能从中得到更多的沉思、谦逊、敏感、体贴。我相信，艺术可以在这方面发挥重要作用。

——Thomas Stauffer，苏黎世，2022年4月22日

以下是英文原文：

It’s the End of the World as We Know It

The art world after the Corona-crisis will be very different.

The title of this article refers to a song by the American rock band R.E.M from their 1987 album Document. The full title of the song is “It’s the End of the World as We Know It (And I Feel Fine)” which, I think, is quite fitting given the unprecedented and frightening, but maybe in the very long run also liberating, times we currently live in.

Economists agree that the global economy is in recession, possibly the deepest that has ever been measured in the West without the effects of war. Some go even further and predict that we will witness the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. In comparison with the Corona pandemic, the effects of the oil crisis in the 1970s, the traumatic experience of 9/11 and the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008 were probably much less dramatic than what we are facing today. In addition to a very prolonged and painful economic reversal, we all find ourselves in a new world with many restrictions. Social distancing, travel restrictions, deserted airports many of which, with their home airlines grounded or bankrupt, can no longer be operated economically. After Covid-19 we might enter a new period of deglobalisation with an unknown outcome and impact for all of us.

What’s the impact of the Covid-19 crisis for the art world?

The outlook is bleak: According to Dominique Lévy, a prominent art dealer, art sales in galleries are down by up to 90%. While possibly exaggerated, this is still a rather mind blowing figure. “It will kill many galleries”, a renowned collector from New York told me last week on the phone. Most museums and galleries around the world are closed due to the global epidemic and it’s uncertain when they will be open again to the public. It’s entirely possible that some art scenes and communities will be economically wiped out. Small and mid-sized galleries already struggle to survive and many will close forever. Waiting lists for so called “emerging or in demand” artists evaporate overnight and all of a sudden access abounds...

Galleries often have huge overheads with expensive rent of their exhibition spaces and salaries to pay for the staff. How can they pay the rent and their employee’s if buyers aren’t buying and people aren’t seeing art? The gallery transactions which we still hear about are mostly at the price range of few thousand to 100’000 US- Dollars. Deals above 200’000 USD are today considered “substantial” transactions even by the largest galleries.

Mega galleries like Gagosian, Hauser & Wirth, David Zwirner as well as very established “star artists” will, of course, survive the Corona pandemic, there is no doubt about that. These galleries have the financial means to sit out the crisis, even if some of them already have had to fire people due to the new reality in the Art World. As a consequence, the gap between the mega galleries and everyone else (smaller and mid-sized galleries) is going to widen and finding an economically viable niche will become even harder for less well-known artists and galleries.

The art world will see terrible losses. A lot depends on how long this global health crisis lasts. But there is hope: those galleries, artists and other participants of the global art community who are most agile and open to change will survive. Creativity will become the decisive survival trait and fortunately we all carry it within us.

What’s happening with all the art fairs? There are currently more than 300 art fairs around the world. Tefaf and Frieze have both cancelled their New York edition scheduled in May, like many smaller art fairs in Europe. Art Basel, the mother of all art fairs, will without a doubt survive, together with with Tefaf and Frieze or, at least, Frieze Masters. Regionally well positioned smaller art fairs like Arco Madrid, Westbund Shanghai and Art021 might come out of the Covid-19 aftermath stronger as well since collectors might not want to take the risk to be stuck in a full airplane for several hours.

At the moment the world is in a state of enforced hibernation. The resumption of art market activities in most regions is planned for September 2020, and the calendar of this month is completely overloaded with biennials, auctions and art fairs. Art Basel in Switzerland, which has been postponed from June to September, is also part of the long list of art events scheduled for September. However, if the West fails to get the epidemic under control very quickly, it is possible that all these events will get cancelled for good so there might be no art fairs, major auctions or biennials this year at all. The next few weeks and months will determine where the journey will go.

How will the auction houses cope with the profound global crisis and what’s their outlook in the aftermath of it? Most likely they will come out of this situation badly bruised but able to resume operations quickly. Some of their business is already being done digitally via online auctions and this shift will now get much more accentuated. But can an auction house exist without the exciting atmosphere of a live auction with a full auction room packed with art market players and their big egos? It’s hard to imagine that in the foreseeable future collectors will be willing to pay millions of dollars in online sales without seeing the artwork in the flesh. As an immediate reaction, auction houses have focused on private treaty sales, since the scheduled live auctions in May in New York are either postponed to June or entirely cancelled. Works of art that were planned for sale at the live auctions are now often transferred to the private sales department of the auction houses. However, the nature of the private sales as a slow business means auction houses will never be able to compensate their losses with private sales alone. The sales strategy for most auction houses short and mid-term, is a combination of private sales and online auctions.

Since in the future we might not be able to travel easily to visit an art fair or to see an exhibition of an artist we love, things will shift towards digitalisation and regional events. Travel restrictions or anxieties to travel might be severe. In the future we will see more virtual museums and gallery shows. Most galleries, art fairs and museums are already rushing to produce online viewing platforms. Galleries in particular are heavily investing in online viewing rooms for their collectors. Collectors will bid online for the art works they desire and watch the live stream of a discussion between their favorite curators and a gallerists on Instagram. As a collector, art lover and museum goer, you will have your art world in pocket format on your smart phone. You visit the Moma New York on virtual reality tour (VR) and augmented reality (AR) based tools. No standard has as yet arisen from these efforts but it seems clear that these tools will change the way we experience art in this new paradigm of international visual culture and exchange.

Even if some of the above description of the state of the current Art World might be rather grim, I’m in general very positive that the art market will come out of this even stronger than before - but things might be very different. In what way, we don’t know. Only that it will be different. The virus won’t kill art and our curiosity for culture. When we look back at the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008/09 and the subsequent global financial crisis, the art market recovered quickly and already in 2011 prices for top quality artworks at auction and in private sales skyrocketed again.

Yes, the world is in lockdown but, on the positive side, we have time to spare and are forced to rethink our future as part of a global community. It’s a time for visions, not desperation. The corona crisis will change us as a society. It is up to us to make sure we come out of it more thoughtful, humble, sensitive and considerate. Art can play an important role in this, and I am confident that it will.

Author: Thomas Stauffer, Zurich, April 22, 2022

（翻译、编辑：罗书银）

（本文由作者授权于艺术网及艺术头条APP独家发布，未经授权禁止转载）

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